A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
